Stalled, Stuck or Stale The Blog For Brands That Don't Have It All Together

My Second Greatest Fear

Things are still tough out there, and anybody who runs a company has to remain concerned about expense ratios, staffing levels, customer retention, and cash flow (in a time like this, “cash is king, queen and the royal family” says Cisco’s John Chambers). The danger of making a misstep in any one of these areas is enough to keep even the most confident corporate leader up at night.

But there’s another kind of danger lurking around the corner: economic recovery. What challenges will our companies face when things turn around? A recent Wall Street Journal survey discovered that a preponderance of economists expect the recession to end in September. (Disclaimer: I’m not placing a lot of faith in what economists say; they weren’t exactly spot-on in predicting the mess we’re in. Still, sooner or later the economy will heat up again.) While I’m looking forward to that day, I’m also somewhat concerned about it.

Not only will we likely be dealing with inflation (possibly hyperinflation), many companies will experience pent up demand for their services. Demand is a good thing, of course, but to the extent that companies have wrung excess inventory and productive capacity out of their systems, handling the business will stretch them to the limit.

And while the available labor force will theoretically be there (employment tends to lag both recessions and recoveries), there will be strong demand for the best job candidates. Cash–so essential to riding out a storm–will be equally essential to picking up the pieces. As Nomura Securities’ David Resler put it, “It’s like a boxing match. Even if you win the fight, it’s not going to feel as good when you get out of the ring as when you went in.”

One of the most destructive internal dynamics in When Growth Stalls is the loss of nerve that tends to accompany stalled growth. While all of us need to be careful to “preserve the core” (as Jim Collins might put it), we also have to keep in mind what lies ahead and plan accordingly. If we don’t, the cure could be as deadly as the disease.

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