Today is the day. The first business day of 2009. The beginning of a new year. The day we will all look back on and say…and say what?

Economic prognosticators are predicting that we’re in for a rough year–all year. They may be right, although very few of them saw what was coming in 2008. Personally, I’m convinced the economy is too big and too complex to be predictable. So much of what got us into this mess was psychological, from the “irrational exuberance” that fed the housing bubble (and the tech bubble before it) to the “irrational angst” that perpetuated the mess over the last several months. And my research tells me that the psychological–how what corporate leaders think and feel drives so many of their decisions–is the key.

We may decide to take our medicine, lick our wounds and get on with things as individual corporations and as an economy. Or we may keep trying to put off the inevitable cleansing or live in denial and drag this thing on. If we all do our part, we might be able to right the ship more quickly.